Final results
What the numbers say
The competition has concluded. These figures are frozen from the authoritative match and prediction records.
- Completed
- Status
- 11 June – 19 July 2026
- Period
- 104
- Matches
- 2026-08-01
- Finalized
Tournament outcome
World Cup champion: Spain. Spain beat Argentina 1–0 (19 July 2026).
Match completeness: 104 of 104 final · 0 incomplete · 0 unresolved.
Human Actually slate
Group stage only (Groups A–L, 72 fixtures)
- 78
- Calibration Score
- 0.2243
- Avg. Brier
- 44–28
- Record
- 72
- Picks scored
- 65%
- Avg. confidence
- 32
- Knockouts excluded
Human Actually published on-the-record picks for the 72 group-stage matches only. The 32 knockout matches (LAST 32 through Final) were not on the lab slate and are excluded from the Human Actually calibration total — not because outcomes are missing, but because no lab prediction existed.
- High-confidence calls (≥80%) were mostly earned: 7 correct, 2 wrong.
- Low-confidence calls (≤60%) were near coin-flip: 16 correct, 17 wrong — appropriate caution.
- The expensive misses clustered on favorites that drew: stated confidence for a win collided with a 0–0 or 1–1.
- Average stated confidence (65%) sat below the public crowd (78%), and the lab’s calibration score finished higher.
Strongest calls
- Jordan vs Argentina · Group J
Call: Argentina at 85% → Argentina won 3-1
Brier 0.0225 · Strong call - Germany vs Curaçao · Group E
Call: Germany at 85% → Germany won 7-1
Brier 0.0225 · Strong call - Brazil vs Haiti · Group C
Call: Brazil at 85% → Brazil won 3-0
Brier 0.0225 · Strong call
Most expensive misses
- Spain vs Cape Verde Islands · Group H
Call: Spain at 85% → Spain and Cape Verde Islands drew 0-0
Brier 0.7225 · Overconfidence with a receipt - Portugal vs Congo DR · Group K
Call: Portugal at 80% → Portugal and Congo DR drew 1-1
Brier 0.64 · Meaningful miss - Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands · Group H
Call: Uruguay at 75% → Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands drew 2-2
Brier 0.5625 · Meaningful miss
Public crowd
- 67
- Calibration Score
- 0.3325
- Avg. Brier
- 64–67
- Record
- 131
- Predictions
- 17
- Participants
- 78%
- Avg. confidence
- Self-selected public sample — not a scientific poll or representative survey.
- 31 of 104 matches received no public (non-lab) predictions.
- Higher average confidence than the lab slate, with a lower calibration score.
How to read this
There is no tournament “winner” among forecasters. The Calibration Cup grades confidence against reality. A higher Calibration Score means stated probabilities lined up better with what happened. Full methodology: How scoring works. Interpretation: Read the conclusion.
Last finalized: 2026-08-01. Source: Supabase match and score tables.