A Human Actually experiment · World Cup 2026

The Calibration Cup

A Human Actually Lab for the 2026 World Cup. Make a prediction, assign confidence, and see whether reality treats that confidence as earned.

A bracket asks who wins. The Calibration Cup asks whether your confidence deserved to be trusted.

Make a predictionHow scoring works
Receipt-style soccer pitch diagram showing prediction confidence, outcomes, and calibration score.
01

Pick a match

Every fixture of the 2026 World Cup — group stage to final — is a question waiting for your call.

02

Set your probability

Don't just pick a winner. Say how sure you are. Your confidence is the whole game.

03

Get scored on calibration

When the match resolves, we measure how honest your numbers were — not just whether you were right, but whether your 70% calls actually happen 70% of the time.

The slate

Make your calls

Start with the box below: pick a display name, then choose any match. Set how confident you are, save your pick, and come back when results land to collect your Trust Receipts.

Something broken or confusing? Send feedback.

Step 1 · Start here

Pick anything — a handle, an initial, leave it blank. Aggregates never expose individual display names or participant IDs.

Step 2 · Make a call

Pick any match below. Set your confidence. Save.

This is not a bracket. A bracket rewards being right. Calibration measures whether your confidence deserved to be trusted.

Your calibration

Calibration dashboard

—

Calibration Score · /100

No predictions yet. Make one pick, assign your confidence, and let reality grade it later.

The Calibration Score is not a score of intelligence or credibility. It measures how well confidence matched reality. The goal is not to be fearless. The goal is to be honest about uncertainty.

Group A

6 matches · Jun 11–Jun 25 · 6 final

Group A

Final

Jun 11, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

MexicovsSouth Africa

Mexico won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group A

Final

Jun 12, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

South KoreavsCzechia

South Korea won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group A

Final

Jun 18, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

CzechiavsSouth Africa

Czechia and South Africa drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group A

Final

Jun 19, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

MexicovsSouth Korea

Mexico won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group A

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

CzechiavsMexico

Mexico won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group A

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

South AfricavsSouth Korea

South Africa won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

6 matches · Jun 12–Jun 24 · 6 final

Group B

Final

Jun 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

CanadavsBosnia-Herzegovina

Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

Final

Jun 13, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

QatarvsSwitzerland

Qatar and Switzerland drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

Final

Jun 18, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SwitzerlandvsBosnia-Herzegovina

Switzerland won 4-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

Final

Jun 18, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

CanadavsQatar

Canada won 6-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

Final

Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SwitzerlandvsCanada

Switzerland won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group B

Final

Jun 24, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

Bosnia-HerzegovinavsQatar

Bosnia-Herzegovina won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

6 matches · Jun 13–Jun 26 · 6 final

Group D

Final

Jun 13, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

United StatesvsParaguay

United States won 4-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

Final

Jun 14, 2026 · 04:00 UTC

AustraliavsTurkey

Australia won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

Final

Jun 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

United StatesvsAustralia

United States won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

Final

Jun 20, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

TurkeyvsParaguay

Paraguay won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

Final

Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

ParaguayvsAustralia

Paraguay and Australia drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group D

Final

Jun 26, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

TurkeyvsUnited States

Turkey won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

6 matches · Jun 13–Jun 24 · 6 final

Group C

Final

Jun 13, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

BrazilvsMorocco

Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

Final

Jun 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

HaitivsScotland

Scotland won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

Final

Jun 19, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

ScotlandvsMorocco

Morocco won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

Final

Jun 20, 2026 · 00:30 UTC

BrazilvsHaiti

Brazil won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

Final

Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

ScotlandvsBrazil

Brazil won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group C

Final

Jun 24, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

MoroccovsHaiti

Morocco won 4-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

6 matches · Jun 14–Jun 25 · 6 final

Group E

Final

Jun 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

GermanyvsCuraçao

Germany won 7-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

Final

Jun 14, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

Ivory CoastvsEcuador

Ivory Coast won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

Final

Jun 20, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

GermanyvsIvory Coast

Germany won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

Final

Jun 21, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

EcuadorvsCuraçao

Ecuador and Curaçao drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

CuraçaovsIvory Coast

Ivory Coast won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group E

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

EcuadorvsGermany

Ecuador won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

6 matches · Jun 14–Jun 25 · 6 final

Group F

Final

Jun 14, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

NetherlandsvsJapan

Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

Final

Jun 15, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

SwedenvsTunisia

Sweden won 5-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

Final

Jun 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

NetherlandsvsSweden

Netherlands won 5-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

Final

Jun 21, 2026 · 04:00 UTC

TunisiavsJapan

Japan won 4-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

TunisiavsNetherlands

Netherlands won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group F

Final

Jun 25, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

JapanvsSweden

Japan and Sweden drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

6 matches · Jun 15–Jun 27 · 6 final

Group H

Final

Jun 15, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

SpainvsCape Verde Islands

Spain and Cape Verde Islands drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

Final

Jun 15, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

Saudi ArabiavsUruguay

Saudi Arabia and Uruguay drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

Final

Jun 21, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

SpainvsSaudi Arabia

Spain won 4-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

Final

Jun 21, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands

Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands drew 2-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

UruguayvsSpain

Spain won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group H

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

Cape Verde IslandsvsSaudi Arabia

Cape Verde Islands and Saudi Arabia drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

6 matches · Jun 15–Jun 27 · 6 final

Group G

Final

Jun 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

BelgiumvsEgypt

Belgium and Egypt drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

Final

Jun 16, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

IranvsNew Zealand

Iran and New Zealand drew 2-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

Final

Jun 21, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

BelgiumvsIran

Belgium and Iran drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

Final

Jun 22, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

New ZealandvsEgypt

Egypt won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

EgyptvsIran

Egypt and Iran drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group G

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

New ZealandvsBelgium

Belgium won 5-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

6 matches · Jun 16–Jun 26 · 6 final

Group I

Final

Jun 16, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

FrancevsSenegal

France won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

Final

Jun 16, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

IraqvsNorway

Norway won 4-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

Final

Jun 22, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

FrancevsIraq

France won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

Final

Jun 23, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

NorwayvsSenegal

Norway won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

Final

Jun 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SenegalvsIraq

Senegal won 5-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group I

Final

Jun 26, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

NorwayvsFrance

France won 4-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

6 matches · Jun 17–Jun 28 · 6 final

Group J

Final

Jun 17, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

ArgentinavsAlgeria

Argentina won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

Final

Jun 17, 2026 · 04:00 UTC

AustriavsJordan

Austria won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

Final

Jun 22, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

ArgentinavsAustria

Argentina won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

Final

Jun 23, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

JordanvsAlgeria

Algeria won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

Final

Jun 28, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

JordanvsArgentina

Argentina won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group J

Final

Jun 28, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

AlgeriavsAustria

Algeria and Austria drew 3-3

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

6 matches · Jun 17–Jun 27 · 6 final

Group K

Final

Jun 17, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

PortugalvsCongo DR

Portugal and Congo DR drew 1-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

Final

Jun 18, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

UzbekistanvsColombia

Colombia won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

Final

Jun 23, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

PortugalvsUzbekistan

Portugal won 5-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

Final

Jun 24, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

ColombiavsCongo DR

Colombia won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 23:30 UTC

ColombiavsPortugal

Colombia and Portugal drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group K

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 23:30 UTC

Congo DRvsUzbekistan

Congo DR won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

6 matches · Jun 17–Jun 27 · 6 final

Group L

Final

Jun 17, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

EnglandvsCroatia

England won 4-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

Final

Jun 17, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

GhanavsPanama

Ghana won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

Final

Jun 23, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

EnglandvsGhana

England and Ghana drew 0-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

Final

Jun 23, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

PanamavsCroatia

Croatia won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

PanamavsEngland

England won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Group L

Final

Jun 27, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

CroatiavsGhana

Croatia won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

16 matches · Jun 28–Jul 4 · 16 final

LAST 32

Final

Jun 28, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

South AfricavsCanada

Canada won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jun 29, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

BrazilvsJapan

Brazil won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jun 29, 2026 · 20:30 UTC

GermanyvsParaguay

Paraguay won 5-4

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jun 30, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

NetherlandsvsMorocco

Morocco won 4-3

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jun 30, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

Ivory CoastvsNorway

Norway won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jun 30, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

FrancevsSweden

France won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 1, 2026 · 02:00 UTC

MexicovsEcuador

Mexico won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 1, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

EnglandvsCongo DR

England won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 1, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

BelgiumvsSenegal

Belgium won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 2, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

United StatesvsBosnia-Herzegovina

United States won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 2, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SpainvsAustria

Spain won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 2, 2026 · 23:00 UTC

PortugalvsCroatia

Portugal won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 3, 2026 · 03:00 UTC

SwitzerlandvsAlgeria

Switzerland won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 3, 2026 · 18:00 UTC

AustraliavsEgypt

Egypt won 5-3

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 3, 2026 · 22:00 UTC

ArgentinavsCape Verde Islands

Argentina won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

LAST 32

Final

Jul 4, 2026 · 01:30 UTC

ColombiavsGhana

Colombia won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

8 matches · Jul 4–Jul 7 · 8 final

Round of 16

Final

Jul 4, 2026 · 17:00 UTC

CanadavsMorocco

Morocco won 3-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 4, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

ParaguayvsFrance

France won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 5, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

BrazilvsNorway

Norway won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 6, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

MexicovsEngland

England won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 6, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

PortugalvsSpain

Spain won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 7, 2026 · 00:00 UTC

United StatesvsBelgium

Belgium won 4-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 7, 2026 · 16:00 UTC

ArgentinavsEgypt

Argentina won 3-2

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Round of 16

Final

Jul 7, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

SwitzerlandvsColombia

Switzerland won 4-3

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Quarter-final

4 matches · Jul 9–Jul 12 · 4 final

Quarter-final

Final

Jul 9, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

FrancevsMorocco

France won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Quarter-final

Final

Jul 10, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SpainvsBelgium

Spain won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Quarter-final

Final

Jul 11, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

NorwayvsEngland

England won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Quarter-final

Final

Jul 12, 2026 · 01:00 UTC

ArgentinavsSwitzerland

Argentina won 3-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Semi-final

2 matches · Jul 14–Jul 15 · 2 final

Semi-final

Final

Jul 14, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

FrancevsSpain

Spain won 2-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Semi-final

Final

Jul 15, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

EnglandvsArgentina

Argentina won 2-1

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Third-place play-off

1 match · Jul 18 · 1 final

Third-place play-off

Final

Jul 18, 2026 · 21:00 UTC

FrancevsEngland

England won 6-4

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

Final

1 match · Jul 19 · 1 final

Final

Final

Jul 19, 2026 · 19:00 UTC

SpainvsArgentina

Spain won 1-0

This match is final. No prediction was recorded in this browser.

The crowd

Public confidence signal

Aggregated, pseudonymous predictions from everyone who has opted in. Public reporting is aggregate — no participant IDs, no raw rows.

Public confidence signal

What the crowd is predicting

Loading…

This is a live community snapshot, not a scientific poll. The value is not that the crowd is always right. The value is seeing how confidence behaves before reality grades it.

On the record

The Human Actually slate

Our own calls, graded by the same ruler. Confidence stated up front, receipts attached when results land.

Sun, Jun 28

2 picks · 2 resolved

Group J

Resolved

AlgeriavsAustria

Jun 28

Our call

Austria · 55%

Outcome: Algeria and Austria drew 3-3 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group J

Resolved

JordanvsArgentina

Jun 28

Our call

Argentina · 85%

Outcome: Argentina won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.0225 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Sat, Jun 27

8 picks · 8 resolved

Group K

Resolved

ColombiavsPortugal

Jun 27

Our call

Portugal · 55%

Outcome: Colombia and Portugal drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group K

Resolved

Congo DRvsUzbekistan

Jun 27

Our call

Uzbekistan · 55%

Outcome: Congo DR won 3-1 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group L

Resolved

PanamavsEngland

Jun 27

Our call

England · 80%

Outcome: England won 2-0 · Correct

Brier 0.04 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Group L

Resolved

CroatiavsGhana

Jun 27

Our call

Croatia · 60%

Outcome: Croatia won 2-1 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group G

Resolved

EgyptvsIran

Jun 27

Our call

Egypt · 55%

Outcome: Egypt and Iran drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group G

Resolved

New ZealandvsBelgium

Jun 27

Our call

Belgium · 75%

Outcome: Belgium won 5-1 · Correct

Brier 0.0625 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group H

Resolved

Cape Verde IslandsvsSaudi Arabia

Jun 27

Our call

Saudi Arabia · 60%

Outcome: Cape Verde Islands and Saudi Arabia drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group H

Resolved

UruguayvsSpain

Jun 27

Our call

Spain · 60%

Outcome: Spain won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Fri, Jun 26

4 picks · 4 resolved

Group I

Resolved

NorwayvsFrance

Jun 26

Our call

France · 65%

Outcome: France won 4-1 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group I

Resolved

SenegalvsIraq

Jun 26

Our call

Senegal · 70%

Outcome: Senegal won 5-0 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group D

Resolved

TurkeyvsUnited States

Jun 26

Our call

United States · 55%

Outcome: Turkey won 3-2 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group D

Resolved

ParaguayvsAustralia

Jun 26

Our call

Paraguay · 55%

Outcome: Paraguay and Australia drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Thu, Jun 25

6 picks · 6 resolved

Group F

Resolved

JapanvsSweden

Jun 25

Our call

Japan · 55%

Outcome: Japan and Sweden drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group F

Resolved

TunisiavsNetherlands

Jun 25

Our call

Netherlands · 75%

Outcome: Netherlands won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.0625 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group E

Resolved

EcuadorvsGermany

Jun 25

Our call

Germany · 65%

Outcome: Ecuador won 2-1 · Missed

Brier 0.4225 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group E

Resolved

CuraçaovsIvory Coast

Jun 25

Our call

Ivory Coast · 70%

Outcome: Ivory Coast won 2-0 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group A

Resolved

CzechiavsMexico

Jun 25

Our call

Mexico · 55%

Outcome: Mexico won 3-0 · Correct

Brier 0.2025 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group A

Resolved

South AfricavsSouth Korea

Jun 25

Our call

South Korea · 60%

Outcome: South Africa won 1-0 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Wed, Jun 24

5 picks · 5 resolved

Group C

Resolved

ScotlandvsBrazil

Jun 24

Our call

Brazil · 80%

Outcome: Brazil won 3-0 · Correct

Brier 0.04 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Group C

Resolved

MoroccovsHaiti

Jun 24

Our call

Morocco · 75%

Outcome: Morocco won 4-2 · Correct

Brier 0.0625 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group B

Resolved

SwitzerlandvsCanada

Jun 24

Our call

Switzerland · 55%

Outcome: Switzerland won 2-1 · Correct

Brier 0.2025 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group B

Resolved

Bosnia-HerzegovinavsQatar

Jun 24

Our call

Bosnia-Herzegovina · 60%

Outcome: Bosnia-Herzegovina won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group K

Resolved

ColombiavsCongo DR

Jun 24

Our call

Colombia · 65%

Outcome: Colombia won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Tue, Jun 23

5 picks · 5 resolved

Group L

Resolved

PanamavsCroatia

Jun 23

Our call

Croatia · 70%

Outcome: Croatia won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group L

Resolved

EnglandvsGhana

Jun 23

Our call

England · 70%

Outcome: England and Ghana drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.49 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group K

Resolved

PortugalvsUzbekistan

Jun 23

Our call

Portugal · 75%

Outcome: Portugal won 5-0 · Correct

Brier 0.0625 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group J

Resolved

JordanvsAlgeria

Jun 23

Our call

Algeria · 65%

Outcome: Algeria won 2-1 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group I

Resolved

NorwayvsSenegal

Jun 23

Our call

Norway · 55%

Outcome: Norway won 3-2 · Correct

Brier 0.2025 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Mon, Jun 22

3 picks · 3 resolved

Group I

Resolved

FrancevsIraq

Jun 22

Our call

France · 85%

Outcome: France won 3-0 · Correct

Brier 0.0225 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Group J

Resolved

ArgentinavsAustria

Jun 22

Our call

Argentina · 65%

Outcome: Argentina won 2-0 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group G

Resolved

New ZealandvsEgypt

Jun 22

Our call

Egypt · 65%

Outcome: Egypt won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Sun, Jun 21

5 picks · 5 resolved

Group H

Resolved

UruguayvsCape Verde Islands

Jun 21

Our call

Uruguay · 75%

Outcome: Uruguay and Cape Verde Islands drew 2-2 · Missed

Brier 0.5625 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group G

Resolved

BelgiumvsIran

Jun 21

Our call

Belgium · 65%

Outcome: Belgium and Iran drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.4225 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group H

Resolved

SpainvsSaudi Arabia

Jun 21

Our call

Spain · 80%

Outcome: Spain won 4-0 · Correct

Brier 0.04 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Group F

Resolved

TunisiavsJapan

Jun 21

Our call

Japan · 60%

Outcome: Japan won 4-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group E

Resolved

EcuadorvsCuraçao

Jun 21

Our call

Ecuador · 75%

Outcome: Ecuador and Curaçao drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.5625 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Sat, Jun 20

4 picks · 4 resolved

Group E

Resolved

GermanyvsIvory Coast

Jun 20

Our call

Germany · 70%

Outcome: Germany won 2-1 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group F

Resolved

NetherlandsvsSweden

Jun 20

Our call

Netherlands · 60%

Outcome: Netherlands won 5-1 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group D

Resolved

TurkeyvsParaguay

Jun 20

Our call

Turkey · 55%

Outcome: Paraguay won 1-0 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group C

Resolved

BrazilvsHaiti

Jun 20

Our call

Brazil · 85%

Outcome: Brazil won 3-0 · Correct

Brier 0.0225 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Fri, Jun 19

3 picks · 3 resolved

Group C

Resolved

ScotlandvsMorocco

Jun 19

Our call

Morocco · 60%

Outcome: Morocco won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group D

Resolved

United StatesvsAustralia

Jun 19

Our call

United States · 65%

Outcome: United States won 2-0 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group A

Resolved

MexicovsSouth Korea

Jun 19

Our call

Mexico · 60%

Outcome: Mexico won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Thu, Jun 18

4 picks · 4 resolved

Group B

Resolved

CanadavsQatar

Jun 18

Our call

Canada · 60%

Outcome: Canada won 6-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group B

Resolved

SwitzerlandvsBosnia-Herzegovina

Jun 18

Our call

Switzerland · 60%

Outcome: Switzerland won 4-1 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group A

Resolved

CzechiavsSouth Africa

Jun 18

Our call

Czechia · 60%

Outcome: Czechia and South Africa drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group K

Resolved

UzbekistanvsColombia

Jun 18

Our call

Colombia · 65%

Outcome: Colombia won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Wed, Jun 17

5 picks · 5 resolved

Group L

Resolved

GhanavsPanama

Jun 17

Our call

Ghana · 60%

Outcome: Ghana won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group L

Resolved

EnglandvsCroatia

Jun 17

Our call

England · 60%

Outcome: England won 4-2 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Group K

Resolved

PortugalvsCongo DR

Jun 17

Our call

Portugal · 80%

Outcome: Portugal and Congo DR drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.64 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group J

Resolved

AustriavsJordan

Jun 17

Our call

Austria · 70%

Outcome: Austria won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group J

Resolved

ArgentinavsAlgeria

Jun 17

Our call

Argentina · 75%

Outcome: Argentina won 3-0 · Correct

Brier 0.0625 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Tue, Jun 16

3 picks · 3 resolved

Group I

Resolved

IraqvsNorway

Jun 16

Our call

Norway · 70%

Outcome: Norway won 4-1 · Correct

Brier 0.09 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group I

Resolved

FrancevsSenegal

Jun 16

Our call

France · 65%

Outcome: France won 3-1 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Group G

Resolved

IranvsNew Zealand

Jun 16

Our call

Iran · 60%

Outcome: Iran and New Zealand drew 2-2 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Mon, Jun 15

4 picks · 4 resolved

Group H

Resolved

Saudi ArabiavsUruguay

Jun 15

Our call

Uruguay · 70%

Outcome: Saudi Arabia and Uruguay drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.49 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group G

Resolved

BelgiumvsEgypt

Jun 15

Our call

Belgium · 65%

Outcome: Belgium and Egypt drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.4225 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group H

Resolved

SpainvsCape Verde Islands

Jun 15

Our call

Spain · 85%

Outcome: Spain and Cape Verde Islands drew 0-0 · Missed

Brier 0.7225 · lower is better

Overconfidence with a receipt

This is the kind of miss that should reduce trust in the judgment process.

Group F

Resolved

SwedenvsTunisia

Jun 15

Our call

Sweden · 55%

Outcome: Sweden won 5-1 · Correct

Brier 0.2025 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Sun, Jun 14

5 picks · 5 resolved

Group E

Resolved

Ivory CoastvsEcuador

Jun 14

Our call

Ecuador · 55%

Outcome: Ivory Coast won 1-0 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group F

Resolved

NetherlandsvsJapan

Jun 14

Our call

Netherlands · 60%

Outcome: Netherlands and Japan drew 2-2 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group E

Resolved

GermanyvsCuraçao

Jun 14

Our call

Germany · 85%

Outcome: Germany won 7-1 · Correct

Brier 0.0225 · lower is better

Strong call

Your confidence matched the outcome.

Group D

Resolved

AustraliavsTurkey

Jun 14

Our call

Turkey · 60%

Outcome: Australia won 2-0 · Missed

Brier 0.36 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group C

Resolved

HaitivsScotland

Jun 14

Our call

Scotland · 65%

Outcome: Scotland won 1-0 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

Sat, Jun 13

3 picks · 3 resolved

Group C

Resolved

BrazilvsMorocco

Jun 13

Our call

Brazil · 70%

Outcome: Brazil and Morocco drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.49 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group B

Resolved

QatarvsSwitzerland

Jun 13

Our call

Switzerland · 65%

Outcome: Qatar and Switzerland drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.4225 · lower is better

Meaningful miss

The prediction was plausible, but the confidence was too high for the outcome.

Group D

Resolved

United StatesvsParaguay

Jun 13

Our call

United States · 60%

Outcome: United States won 4-1 · Correct

Brier 0.16 · lower is better

Cautious but right

You were right, but cautious. That may be good calibration, not weakness.

Fri, Jun 12

2 picks · 2 resolved

Group B

Resolved

CanadavsBosnia-Herzegovina

Jun 12

Our call

Canada · 55%

Outcome: Canada and Bosnia-Herzegovina drew 1-1 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Group A

Resolved

South KoreavsCzechia

Jun 12

Our call

Czechia · 55%

Outcome: South Korea won 2-1 · Missed

Brier 0.3025 · lower is better

Reasonable uncertainty

You were wrong, but you did not overstate your certainty.

Thu, Jun 11

1 pick · 1 resolved

Group A

Resolved

MexicovsSouth Africa

Jun 11

Our call

Mexico · 65%

Outcome: Mexico won 2-0 · Correct

Brier 0.1225 · lower is better

Reasonable call

The prediction landed, and the confidence was not reckless.

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